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Created: C:/Users/Chris/Python/format_csv.py
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Half-Month Performance Ranking (by Median Return):
half_month median_return average_return min_return max_return count
rank
1 2H_October 9.72 9.23 -15.82 42.58 218
2 1H_January 7.25 6.66 -34.27 56.11 207
3 2H_February 6.31 2.72 -16.12 22.24 186
4 1H_February 5.59 8.07 -18.58 44.80 210
5 1H_March 5.42 3.99 -37.32 39.87 210
6 2H_July 4.82 10.44 -7.03 44.93 208
7 2H_April 4.63 9.75 -14.19 89.05 210
8 1H_October 4.56 6.41 -16.49 40.66 207
9 2H_November 4.36 17.82 -28.72 171.75 208
10 1H_November 3.67 9.75 -24.70 102.42 207
11 1H_April 3.26 2.75 -22.51 22.86 210
12 2H_May 1.88 6.58 -20.13 40.68 210
13 1H_December 1.14 4.36 -23.00 75.99 208
14 2H_March 1.14 6.16 -28.66 104.88 224
15 2H_January 1.03 1.16 -25.27 44.59 224
16 2H_September 0.71 -0.83 -19.59 16.92 209
17 1H_July 0.58 0.29 -20.08 14.70 195
18 1H_August 0.32 3.68 -18.82 45.52 195
19 1H_May 0.29 2.71 -22.11 55.83 210
20 2H_June -0.08 1.39 -12.77 21.48 195
21 1H_September -0.10 -2.28 -35.88 14.02 204
22 1H_June -0.10 -0.43 -29.02 30.55 195
23 2H_August -1.72 -2.14 -26.61 30.49 216
24 2H_December -4.80 4.08 -20.59 49.18 223
Day of Week Performance Ranking (by Median Return):
day median_return average_return min_return max_return count
rank
1 Monday 0.32 0.69 -20.79 39.93 713
2 Tuesday 0.30 0.40 -19.88 23.38 714
3 Wednesday 0.26 0.45 -29.24 32.62 712
4 Friday 0.24 0.45 -20.63 54.74 714
5 Thursday 0.10 0.19 -48.52 31.54 715
6 Saturday 0.09 0.07 -16.62 14.82 711
7 Sunday 0.00 0.03 -32.04 17.00 710
Day of Week Performance (ordered by weekday):
day median_return average_return min_return max_return count
rank
1 Monday 0.32 0.69 -20.79 39.93 713
2 Tuesday 0.30 0.40 -19.88 23.38 714
3 Wednesday 0.26 0.45 -29.24 32.62 712
5 Thursday 0.10 0.19 -48.52 31.54 715
4 Friday 0.24 0.45 -20.63 54.74 714
6 Saturday 0.09 0.07 -16.62 14.82 711
7 Sunday 0.00 0.03 -32.04 17.00 710
DataFrame Columns:
0: time
1: open
2: high
3: low
4: close
5: daily_return_percent
6: day
7: year
8: year_return_percent
9: cycle_year
10: cycle_year_return_percent
11: quarter
12: quarter_return_percent
13: month
14: monthly_return_percent
15: week
16: weekly_return_percent
17: half_month
18: half_monthly_return_percent
Sample data:
time open high low close daily_return_percent day year year_return_percent cycle_year cycle_year_return_percent quarter quarter_return_percent month monthly_return_percent week weekly_return_percent half_month half_monthly_return_percent
0 2011-08-18 10.90 10.90 10.90 10.90 0.000000 Thursday 2011 -57.981651 Year3 -57.981651 3 -55.779817 August -26.605505 33 7.339450 2H_August -26.605505
1 2011-08-19 11.85 11.85 11.15 11.69 -1.350211 Friday 2011 -57.981651 Year3 -57.981651 3 -55.779817 August -26.605505 33 7.339450 2H_August -26.605505
2 2011-08-20 11.70 11.70 11.70 11.70 0.000000 Saturday 2011 -57.981651 Year3 -57.981651 3 -55.779817 August -26.605505 33 7.339450 2H_August -26.605505
3 2011-08-21 11.70 11.70 11.70 11.70 0.000000 Sunday 2011 -57.981651 Year3 -57.981651 3 -55.779817 August -26.605505 33 7.339450 2H_August -26.605505
4 2011-08-22 11.70 11.70 11.70 11.70 0.000000 Monday 2011 -57.981651 Year3 -57.981651 3 -55.779817 August -26.605505 34 -14.529915 2H_August -26.605505
time open high low close daily_return_percent day year year_return_percent cycle_year cycle_year_return_percent quarter quarter_return_percent month monthly_return_percent week weekly_return_percent half_month half_monthly_return_percent
4984 2025-05-13 102796.0 104997.0 101471.0 104135.0 1.302580 Tuesday 2025 10.920544 Year1 10.920544 2 25.447981 May 9.93831 20 -0.573278 1H_May 10.205880
4985 2025-05-14 104126.0 104357.0 102622.0 103531.0 -0.571423 Wednesday 2025 10.920544 Year1 10.920544 2 25.447981 May 9.93831 20 -0.573278 1H_May 10.205880
4986 2025-05-15 103514.0 104184.0 101442.0 103793.0 0.269529 Thursday 2025 10.920544 Year1 10.920544 2 25.447981 May 9.93831 20 -0.573278 1H_May 10.205880
4987 2025-05-16 103800.0 104570.0 103137.0 103506.0 -0.283237 Friday 2025 10.920544 Year1 10.920544 2 25.447981 May 9.93831 20 -0.573278 2H_May -0.249518
4988 2025-05-17 103503.0 103720.0 102668.0 103541.0 0.036714 Saturday 2025 10.920544 Year1 10.920544 2 25.447981 May 9.93831 20 -0.573278 2H_May -0.249518
✅ Complete Bitcoin analysis completed successfully!
1-Month Period Performance:
| Â | Rank | Period | Mean Return | Median Return | Success Rate | Min Return | Max Return | Count | Is Current | Year4 Mean | Year4 Median | Year4 Success | Year4 Count | Year1 Mean | Year1 Median | Year1 Success | Year1 Count | Year2 Mean | Year2 Median | Year2 Success | Year2 Count | Year3 Mean | Year3 Median | Year3 Success | Year3 Count |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 1 | October | 16.708239 | 14.596452 | 72.941176 | -31.958763 | 61.219802 | 425 | False | 10.933955 | 12.745795 | 75.000000 | 124 | 49.975623 | 48.730378 | 100.000000 | 93 | -4.048506 | -4.463919 | 33.333333 | 93 | 12.817125 | 28.540701 | 80.9% | 115 |
| 1 | 2 | February | 11.478221 | 11.632250 | 71.212121 | -31.494396 | 65.172414 | 396 | False | 10.850846 | 4.711207 | 50.000000 | 116 | 26.929632 | 30.103910 | 75.000000 | 112 | -5.886182 | 1.634744 | 66.666667 | 84 | 9.107117 | 11.063395 | 100.0% | 84 |
| 10 | 3 | November | 40.821275 | 11.544720 | 65.060241 | -37.012293 | 450.162130 | 415 | False | 24.898990 | 25.188214 | 100.000000 | 120 | 165.874914 | 54.605206 | 66.666667 | 90 | -13.894289 | -16.215293 | 33.333333 | 90 | 2.388643 | 8.803762 | 52.2% | 115 |
| 6 | 4 | July | 10.186790 | 9.920591 | 69.230769 | -9.056250 | 40.606061 | 403 | False | 15.403052 | 13.692184 | 75.000000 | 124 | 14.697911 | 15.831806 | 100.000000 | 93 | 9.588578 | 16.842772 | 66.666667 | 93 | -0.681137 | -4.063146 | 33.3% | 93 |
| 0 | 5 | January | 5.724824 | 9.699454 | 57.540603 | -32.429907 | 54.531722 | 431 | False | 8.053369 | 8.215224 | 75.000000 | 124 | 19.570423 | 11.996578 | 75.000000 | 124 | -11.306391 | -16.738222 | 33.333333 | 93 | 1.039370 | -7.600200 | 34.4% | 90 |
| 3 | 6 | April | 11.254897 | 5.397477 | 64.285714 | -17.316107 | 46.471204 | 420 | False | 7.405229 | 5.189520 | 75.000000 | 120 | 21.220719 | 20.068815 | 75.000000 | 120 | 4.935164 | -1.310437 | 33.333333 | 90 | 9.419757 | 2.665402 | 66.7% | 90 |
| 4 | 7 | May | 9.837862 | 4.655870 | 55.714286 | -35.385043 | 70.364302 | 420 | True | 11.011360 | 10.394559 | 100.000000 | 124 | 8.983942 | -8.550797 | 43.636364 | 110 | 1.754902 | -15.611611 | 33.333333 | 93 | 17.366169 | -3.197023 | 33.3% | 93 |
| 5 | 8 | June | 1.290665 | 2.120102 | 53.846154 | -37.297881 | 27.852998 | 390 | False | 10.713984 | 11.083742 | 50.000000 | 120 | -9.550328 | -6.015737 | 33.333333 | 90 | -16.649083 | -14.769469 | 33.333333 | 90 | 17.506980 | 14.673889 | 100.0% | 90 |
| 2 | 9 | March | 12.267052 | -1.956171 | 42.857143 | -32.829600 | 186.758127 | 434 | False | -3.746775 | -3.430710 | 25.000000 | 124 | 51.094224 | 13.882171 | 50.000000 | 124 | -15.030623 | -17.573396 | 33.333333 | 93 | 9.146932 | 8.046911 | 66.7% | 93 |
| 8 | 10 | September | -4.032625 | -3.112375 | 36.319613 | -39.750000 | 19.803922 | 413 | False | 6.542976 | 6.959184 | 75.000000 | 120 | -5.626852 | -6.968862 | 0.000000 | 90 | -9.141489 | -5.957570 | 0.000000 | 90 | -9.924608 | 2.584148 | 53.1% | 113 |
| 11 | 11 | December | 6.642505 | -3.203035 | 49.651972 | -34.614835 | 47.145156 | 431 | False | 20.255268 | 18.539476 | 75.000000 | 124 | -4.586390 | -18.960943 | 33.333333 | 93 | -8.449211 | -6.982894 | 0.000000 | 93 | 12.922127 | 11.998092 | 74.4% | 121 |
| 7 | 12 | August | 1.666698 | -8.313253 | 37.712895 | -26.605505 | 65.776435 | 411 | False | -1.238046 | -2.849088 | 50.000000 | 124 | 36.784920 | 30.919505 | 100.000000 | 93 | -13.651142 | -13.863217 | 0.000000 | 93 | -12.999117 | -11.255604 | 0.0% | 101 |
2-Month Period Performance:
| Â | Rank | Period | Mean Return | Median Return | Success Rate | Min Return | Max Return | Count | Is Current | Year4 Mean | Year4 Median | Year4 Success | Year4 Count | Year1 Mean | Year1 Median | Year1 Success | Year1 Count | Year2 Mean | Year2 Median | Year2 Success | Year2 Count | Year3 Mean | Year3 Median | Year3 Success | Year3 Count |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 1 | November-December | 40.265119 | 27.457241 | 64.285714 | -41.418035 | 259.634470 | 14 | False | 50.527870 | 35.823319 | 100.000000 | 4 | 116.892114 | 115.720893 | 66.666667 | 3 | -21.930960 | -19.348070 | 0.000000 | 3 | 19.179182 | 29.924356 | 75.0% | 4 |
| 9 | 2 | October-November | 79.098668 | 25.987918 | 64.285714 | -39.812270 | 786.970297 | 14 | False | 39.704846 | 37.142032 | 100.000000 | 4 | 315.629640 | 129.945979 | 100.000000 | 3 | -18.205098 | -11.581441 | 0.000000 | 3 | 14.072085 | 15.402144 | 50.0% | 4 |
| 8 | 3 | September-October | 11.465651 | 18.804455 | 71.428571 | -58.750000 | 59.139953 | 14 | False | 16.893454 | 18.804455 | 100.000000 | 4 | 41.757452 | 35.907407 | 100.000000 | 3 | -12.452064 | -10.155820 | 33.333333 | 3 | 1.257285 | 14.532349 | 50.0% | 4 |
| 1 | 4 | February-March | 34.180277 | 12.272828 | 64.285714 | -43.358655 | 373.645320 | 14 | False | 9.357892 | 0.568554 | 50.000000 | 4 | 110.701806 | 44.282342 | 75.000000 | 4 | -18.937472 | -31.730941 | 33.333333 | 3 | 18.365834 | 19.989806 | 100.0% | 3 |
| 5 | 5 | June-July | 11.072967 | 11.293596 | 69.230769 | -26.605765 | 79.497099 | 13 | False | 28.156414 | 18.712754 | 75.000000 | 4 | 4.164085 | 11.293596 | 66.666667 | 3 | -10.260947 | -7.288946 | 33.333333 | 3 | 16.537835 | 18.015165 | 100.0% | 3 |
| 11 | 6 | December-January | 12.599230 | 9.475761 | 64.285714 | -42.327634 | 68.200216 | 14 | False | 42.349750 | 47.520229 | 100.000000 | 4 | -19.514037 | -28.272831 | 33.333333 | 3 | -7.213865 | -14.039581 | 33.333333 | 3 | 21.793482 | 18.087095 | 75.0% | 4 |
| 3 | 7 | April-May | 23.215299 | 8.168339 | 61.538462 | -36.483355 | 114.498665 | 13 | False | 18.891402 | 16.992634 | 75.000000 | 4 | 37.317494 | 33.937173 | 66.666667 | 3 | 5.325905 | 8.168339 | 66.666667 | 3 | 32.767696 | -4.414244 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 4 | 8 | May-June | 14.126297 | 5.831475 | 69.230769 | -47.062870 | 104.259415 | 13 | True | 22.999282 | 19.818572 | 100.000000 | 4 | 2.472603 | -35.990563 | 33.333333 | 3 | -11.731168 | -30.916827 | 33.333333 | 3 | 39.806811 | 11.007739 | 100.0% | 3 |
| 0 | 9 | January-February | 18.647726 | 5.795879 | 64.285714 | -25.685159 | 153.247734 | 14 | False | 18.445645 | 14.021501 | 100.000000 | 4 | 55.713504 | 39.637789 | 75.000000 | 4 | -19.044846 | -24.849727 | 0.000000 | 3 | 7.188704 | 2.639793 | 66.7% | 3 |
| 2 | 10 | March-April | 27.827850 | 1.930398 | 64.285714 | -18.657122 | 317.178646 | 14 | False | 0.799067 | 0.700318 | 75.000000 | 4 | 92.469689 | 20.500037 | 100.000000 | 4 | -13.990771 | -12.914598 | 0.000000 | 3 | 19.495729 | 26.306921 | 66.7% | 3 |
| 6 | 11 | July-August | 13.690420 | 0.492921 | 53.846154 | -25.150000 | 92.021838 | 13 | False | 15.309307 | 10.821040 | 50.000000 | 4 | 56.561594 | 43.160720 | 100.000000 | 3 | -4.922102 | 0.492921 | 66.666667 | 3 | -12.726749 | -12.460964 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 7 | 12 | August-September | 0.137788 | -5.104429 | 30.769231 | -32.979744 | 51.483817 | 13 | False | 5.564187 | -2.159928 | 25.000000 | 4 | 28.755379 | 29.129590 | 100.000000 | 3 | -21.392457 | -16.585722 | 0.000000 | 3 | -14.184757 | -17.032562 | 0.0% | 3 |
3-Month Period Performance:
| Â | Rank | Period | Mean Return | Median Return | Success Rate | Min Return | Max Return | Count | Is Current | Year4 Mean | Year4 Median | Year4 Success | Year4 Count | Year1 Mean | Year1 Median | Year1 Success | Year1 Count | Year2 Mean | Year2 Median | Year2 Success | Year2 Count | Year3 Mean | Year3 Median | Year3 Success | Year3 Count |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 1 | November-January | 47.090922 | 30.529970 | 78.571429 | -45.862321 | 294.517048 | 14 | False | 77.586054 | 65.940942 | 100.000000 | 4 | 104.995364 | 57.734247 | 66.666667 | 3 | -22.945218 | -35.826504 | 33.333333 | 3 | 25.694562 | 20.642961 | 100.0% | 4 |
| 9 | 2 | October-December | 73.814022 | 27.942412 | 64.285714 | -44.022165 | 479.801980 | 14 | False | 70.921189 | 53.159969 | 100.000000 | 4 | 235.357620 | 220.843995 | 100.000000 | 3 | -25.502996 | -17.599343 | 0.000000 | 3 | 30.036921 | 25.573624 | 50.0% | 4 |
| 8 | 3 | September-November | 74.256586 | 25.938819 | 64.285714 | -60.125000 | 775.527756 | 14 | False | 46.101446 | 46.782846 | 100.000000 | 4 | 302.188854 | 110.120906 | 100.000000 | 3 | -26.350635 | -21.293919 | 0.000000 | 3 | 6.917942 | 12.093824 | 50.0% | 4 |
| 4 | 4 | May-July | 23.517576 | 20.239354 | 61.538462 | -38.035903 | 111.717128 | 13 | True | 41.292484 | 35.357287 | 100.000000 | 4 | 17.925403 | -28.206167 | 33.333333 | 3 | -8.276271 | -16.423199 | 33.333333 | 3 | 37.203717 | 20.239354 | 66.7% | 3 |
| 1 | 5 | February-April | 55.455776 | 15.003202 | 57.142857 | -44.103362 | 589.064039 | 14 | False | 11.743267 | 7.027285 | 50.000000 | 4 | 173.897114 | 57.278985 | 75.000000 | 4 | -18.410320 | -8.935076 | 0.000000 | 3 | 29.683431 | 26.372439 | 100.0% | 3 |
| 11 | 6 | December-February | 29.231020 | 14.167686 | 64.285714 | -50.862870 | 170.621469 | 14 | False | 87.040715 | 95.067925 | 75.000000 | 4 | -23.747340 | -24.283641 | 33.333333 | 3 | -0.779689 | -4.513217 | 33.333333 | 3 | 33.663126 | 29.878608 | 100.0% | 4 |
| 7 | 7 | August-October | 22.149216 | 11.969478 | 69.230769 | -42.079378 | 125.302454 | 13 | False | 15.210635 | 15.251980 | 100.000000 | 4 | 93.792542 | 108.182469 | 100.000000 | 3 | -24.160420 | -18.423808 | 0.000000 | 3 | 6.066968 | 8.953599 | 66.7% | 3 |
| 2 | 8 | March-May | 38.206487 | 10.805748 | 69.230769 | -27.365126 | 281.479272 | 13 | False | 11.627996 | 10.566295 | 100.000000 | 4 | 118.967558 | 92.922026 | 66.666667 | 3 | -13.368014 | -26.512024 | 33.333333 | 3 | 44.457907 | 17.596993 | 66.7% | 3 |
| 3 | 9 | April-June | 28.015231 | 7.612840 | 61.538462 | -56.230706 | 162.953260 | 13 | False | 31.557926 | 38.619183 | 75.000000 | 4 | 27.825806 | -6.251309 | 33.333333 | 3 | -7.692032 | -7.807551 | 33.333333 | 3 | 59.188325 | 7.612840 | 100.0% | 3 |
| 0 | 10 | January-March | 54.244875 | 2.722598 | 50.000000 | -50.081988 | 626.208459 | 14 | False | 15.395578 | 1.610138 | 50.000000 | 4 | 182.022344 | 56.730146 | 75.000000 | 4 | -29.829482 | -37.864754 | 0.000000 | 3 | 19.748337 | 10.889181 | 66.7% | 3 |
| 6 | 11 | July-September | 11.878692 | 0.998787 | 53.846154 | -38.892188 | 85.151515 | 13 | False | 23.848668 | 9.481279 | 75.000000 | 4 | 47.232605 | 41.203445 | 100.000000 | 3 | -12.751564 | -2.683335 | 33.333333 | 3 | -14.804935 | -11.496931 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 5 | 12 | June-August | 14.477615 | 0.415010 | 61.538462 | -36.875847 | 106.015640 | 13 | False | 28.618266 | 15.306495 | 75.000000 | 4 | 44.231841 | 26.492031 | 100.000000 | 3 | -22.303405 | -23.695444 | 0.000000 | 3 | 2.650208 | 0.415010 | 66.7% | 3 |
6-Month Period Performance:
| Â | Rank | Period | Mean Return | Median Return | Success Rate | Min Return | Max Return | Count | Is Current | Year4 Mean | Year4 Median | Year4 Success | Year4 Count | Year1 Mean | Year1 Median | Year1 Success | Year1 Count | Year2 Mean | Year2 Median | Year2 Success | Year2 Count | Year3 Mean | Year3 Median | Year3 Success | Year3 Count |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 1 | September-February | 86.188878 | 66.010952 | 64.285714 | -47.084612 | 330.101642 | 14 | False | 167.120993 | 168.717541 | 100.000000 | 4 | 146.539822 | 117.877768 | 66.666667 | 3 | -25.882291 | -45.959537 | 33.333333 | 3 | 44.046931 | 38.957892 | 50.0% | 4 |
| 9 | 2 | October-March | 125.229225 | 53.399416 | 78.571429 | -37.917394 | 687.469287 | 14 | False | 309.754869 | 260.611115 | 100.000000 | 4 | 108.085649 | 60.158943 | 100.000000 | 3 | -9.527043 | -37.303625 | 33.333333 | 3 | 54.628464 | 38.415578 | 75.0% | 4 |
| 11 | 3 | December-May | 111.376185 | 49.421965 | 69.230769 | -44.302516 | 932.364810 | 13 | False | 410.520322 | 209.679810 | 100.000000 | 3 | -37.584453 | -43.922395 | 0.000000 | 3 | 44.897845 | 58.563439 | 66.666667 | 3 | 48.597315 | 45.302966 | 100.0% | 4 |
| 7 | 4 | August-January | 103.324481 | 45.641833 | 61.538462 | -62.830312 | 721.315332 | 13 | False | 106.406105 | 89.488601 | 100.000000 | 4 | 323.157322 | 255.380785 | 66.666667 | 3 | -39.782312 | -55.827925 | 0.000000 | 3 | 22.489603 | 29.435526 | 66.7% | 3 |
| 6 | 5 | July-December | 121.971660 | 45.018234 | 69.230769 | -49.843750 | 718.700369 | 13 | False | 102.982519 | 74.798052 | 100.000000 | 4 | 404.496695 | 462.973539 | 100.000000 | 3 | -36.401360 | -42.163411 | 0.000000 | 3 | 23.138499 | 38.691785 | 66.7% | 3 |
| 0 | 6 | January-June | 81.650245 | 44.323144 | 69.230769 | -56.900519 | 576.208459 | 13 | False | 43.800000 | 46.320311 | 100.000000 | 4 | 250.721648 | 155.136908 | 100.000000 | 3 | -41.103543 | -53.993444 | 0.000000 | 3 | 85.799622 | 84.325469 | 66.7% | 3 |
| 10 | 7 | November-April | 135.980408 | 43.928610 | 71.428571 | -38.654002 | 1171.636364 | 14 | False | 404.544530 | 206.192305 | 100.000000 | 4 | 41.836064 | 43.640430 | 66.666667 | 3 | -1.294194 | -16.424776 | 33.333333 | 3 | 40.980495 | 47.409600 | 75.0% | 4 |
| 5 | 8 | June-November | 111.694283 | 42.848044 | 69.230769 | -46.997977 | 776.487163 | 13 | False | 82.812047 | 75.717317 | 100.000000 | 4 | 387.399039 | 332.881928 | 100.000000 | 3 | -44.304241 | -45.967311 | 0.000000 | 3 | 30.497699 | 38.570904 | 66.7% | 3 |
| 4 | 9 | May-October | 54.157954 | 31.170973 | 76.923077 | -45.540211 | 377.003885 | 13 | True | 63.518998 | 57.766111 | 100.000000 | 4 | 142.900028 | 45.520841 | 100.000000 | 3 | -34.024246 | -31.808696 | 0.000000 | 3 | 41.116688 | 31.170973 | 100.0% | 3 |
| 1 | 10 | February-July | 75.204859 | 30.402678 | 76.923077 | -39.396121 | 384.137931 | 13 | False | 52.641101 | 59.834331 | 100.000000 | 4 | 201.898537 | 196.248924 | 100.000000 | 3 | -30.264249 | -27.516812 | 0.000000 | 3 | 84.065300 | 30.402678 | 100.0% | 3 |
| 2 | 11 | March-August | 62.142971 | 12.036637 | 61.538462 | -53.590453 | 297.449545 | 13 | False | 41.854168 | 33.698355 | 75.000000 | 4 | 194.460990 | 281.747689 | 100.000000 | 3 | -32.915262 | -31.969396 | 0.000000 | 3 | 51.934924 | 12.036637 | 66.7% | 3 |
| 3 | 12 | April-September | 44.755799 | -3.168942 | 46.153846 | -57.328822 | 303.801781 | 13 | False | 63.255941 | 57.169211 | 75.000000 | 4 | 103.520605 | 32.198953 | 66.666667 | 3 | -25.361489 | -14.010246 | 0.000000 | 3 | 31.441426 | -3.168942 | 33.3% | 3 |
"\n# Filter to only show bull market (Year1) performance\nbull_market_results = analyze_bitcoin_period_performance(\n df,\n cycle_year_filter='Year1',\n sort_by='median_return',\n ascending=False\n)\n\n# Filter to only show bear market (Year3) performance\nbear_market_results = analyze_bitcoin_period_performance(\n df,\n cycle_year_filter='Year3',\n sort_by='median_return',\n ascending=False\n)\n\n# Analyze 1-month and 3-month periods only, sorted by success rate\nselected_periods = analyze_bitcoin_period_performance(\n df,\n period_lengths=[1, 3],\n sort_by='success_rate',\n ascending=False\n)\n\n# Use custom coloring and display current period\ncustom_styled = analyze_bitcoin_period_performance(\n df,\n color_positive='rgba(0, 128, 0, 0.5)',\n color_negative='rgba(220, 0, 0, 0.5)',\n color_scale=True,\n current_date='2025-05-17' # Use specific date to identify current period\n)\n"
Analysis includes data from 14 years: 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 Historical Year-End Returns (Full Year): 2013 (Cycle Year 1): +5437.07% 2017 (Cycle Year 1): +1291.13% 2020 (Cycle Year 4): +303.87% 2012 (Cycle Year 4): +164.80% 2023 (Cycle Year 3): +154.34% 2016 (Cycle Year 4): +122.74% 2024 (Cycle Year 4): +111.33% 2019 (Cycle Year 3): +87.48% 2021 (Cycle Year 1): +57.18% 2015 (Cycle Year 3): +37.31% 2014 (Cycle Year 2): -57.44% 2011 (Cycle Year 3): -57.98% 2022 (Cycle Year 2): -65.41% 2018 (Cycle Year 2): -72.53% Average Year-End Return: +536.71% Median Year-End Return: +111.33% Returns by Cycle Year: Cycle Year 1 (years: 2013, 2017, 2021): Average: +2261.79% Sample size: 3 years Cycle Year 2 (years: 2014, 2022, 2018): Average: -65.12% Sample size: 3 years Cycle Year 3 (years: 2023, 2019, 2015, 2011): Average: +55.29% Sample size: 4 years Cycle Year 4 (years: 2020, 2012, 2016, 2024): Average: +175.69% Sample size: 4 years
Analysis includes 3 years matching cycle year(s) Year 1: 2013, 2017, 2021 Historical Year-End Returns (Full Year): 2013 (Cycle Year 1): +5437.07% 2017 (Cycle Year 1): +1291.13% 2021 (Cycle Year 1): +57.18% Average Year-End Return (Cycle Year 1): +2261.79% Median Year-End Return (Cycle Year 1): +1291.13% Returns by Cycle Year: Cycle Year 1 (years: 2013, 2017, 2021): Average: +2261.79% Sample size: 3 years
FORWARD RETURNS ANALYSIS ================================================================================ Current 30-day return: 21.88% Similar periods threshold: ±0.50% Filters applied: Cycle Years: Year1, Quarters: 1, 2, 3 Total similar periods found: 11 ================================================================================ Forward Returns Summary: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Window Count Median Mean Min Max % Positive -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 days 11 5.92% 6.17% -9.54% 15.99% 90.9% 14 days 11 9.64% 14.04% -9.62% 43.88% 72.7% 30 days 11 14.51% 13.96% -13.78% 54.22% 63.6% 90 days 11 68.10% 146.60% 7.61% 568.83% 100.0% 180 days 11 260.89% 190.74% -21.58% 490.26% 72.7% 365 days 11 361.68% 348.37% -60.04% 890.38% 72.7% Top 5 Similar Periods (with 90-day forward returns): -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Start Date End Date Forward Return Cycle Year Quarter 2021-09-04 2021-12-03 7.61% Year1 3 2021-08-28 2021-11-26 9.92% Year1 3 2021-02-09 2021-05-10 20.16% Year1 1 2021-01-28 2021-04-28 63.96% Year1 1 2021-01-25 2021-04-25 52.28% Year1 1 ================================================================================
FORWARD RETURNS ANALYSIS ================================================================================ Current 30-day return: 7.71% Similar periods threshold: ±0.50% Filters applied: Cycle Years: Year1, Quarters: 1, 2, 3 Total similar periods found: 5 ================================================================================ Forward Returns Summary: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Window Count Median Mean Min Max % Positive -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 days 5 8.53% 7.09% -6.51% 15.20% 80.0% 14 days 5 4.45% 8.51% -2.98% 23.85% 80.0% 30 days 5 4.10% 8.83% -20.21% 31.12% 80.0% 90 days 5 180.86% 354.80% 36.98% 780.15% 100.0% 180 days 5 278.34% 270.01% -9.83% 469.38% 80.0% 365 days 5 307.73% 374.11% -48.73% 784.28% 80.0% Top 5 Similar Periods (with 90-day forward returns): -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Start Date End Date Forward Return Cycle Year Quarter 2021-08-15 2021-11-13 36.98% Year1 3 2017-03-30 2017-06-28 147.64% Year1 1 2017-03-25 2017-06-23 180.86% Year1 1 2013-09-06 2013-12-05 780.15% Year1 3 2013-09-02 2013-12-01 628.39% Year1 3 ================================================================================
Half-Month All-Time High Rankings: Rank Period ATH Count % of Days Unique Years ------------------------------------------------------------ 1 November_2H 27 12.98% 5 2 November_1H 23 11.11% 4 3 March_1H 16 7.62% 4 4 February_2H 14 7.53% 3 5 February_1H 14 6.67% 2 6 December_2H 13 5.83% 3 7 December_1H 11 5.29% 3 8 April_1H 9 4.29% 2 9 May_1H 8 3.81% 1 10 August_1H 8 4.10% 1 11 March_2H 8 3.57% 1 12 May_2H 7 3.33% 1 <-- WE ARE HERE 13 January_2H 6 2.68% 2 14 January_1H 6 2.90% 1 15 August_2H 6 2.78% 3 16 October_2H 5 2.29% 2 17 June_1H 3 1.54% 1 <-- NEXT 18 October_1H 2 0.97% 1 19 September_1H 2 0.98% 1 20 April_2H 1 0.48% 1 21 July_1H 0 0.00% 0 22 July_2H 0 0.00% 0 23 June_2H 0 0.00% 0 24 September_2H 0 0.00% 0 Total All-Time Highs: 189 Current Period: May_2H (Rank #12)
Month All-Time High Rankings: Rank Month ATH Count % of Days Unique Years ------------------------------------------------------------ 1 November 50 12.05% 6 2 February 28 7.07% 3 3 December 24 5.57% 3 4 March 24 5.53% 4 5 May 15 3.57% 1 <-- WE ARE HERE 6 August 14 3.41% 3 7 January 12 2.78% 3 8 April 10 2.38% 3 9 October 7 1.65% 2 10 June 3 0.77% 1 <-- NEXT 11 September 2 0.48% 1 12 July 0 0.00% 0 Total All-Time Highs: 189 Current Period: May (Rank #5)
